The Reserve Bank remains in no hurry to move interest rates with the next change not expected until next year at the earliest, economists say. However, economists remained mixed about what direction a likely move would take with an increasing number expecting a slight chance for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut rates from 5.50 per cent. The slight change in expectations comes after the RBA's softer tone last week, seen in its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy and bank governor Ian Macfarlane's subsequent testimony before parliament. Last week, Mr Macfarlane painted an upbeat picture of the economy and said while there was a 50-50 chance of rates going up, they could also come down. Three out of seven economists surveyed by AAP said interest rates would move down in 2006 with the balance expecting a hike. BT Funds Management economist Tracey McNaughton has forecast a quarter of a percentage point hike in the June quarter of 2006. "In our minds, we feel far more confident now in the housing cycle and consumer spending cycle and for us that was where the downside risks lay," Ms McNaughton. "Given our greater confidence on that sector plus signs export volumes are starting to pick up we have a smaller probability of a cut now than previously." Similarly, St George chief economist Steve Ryan forecast a quarter percentage point rise in the second quarter of next year, with retailing expected to pick up over the next 12 months. "We're probably not too far off from the bottom in consumer spending," Mr Ryan said. "I think retailing will start to pick up over the next 12 months ... and I think the global situation's still pretty solid." Despite the tendency towards lifting, the RBA's recent statement showed the bias was only slight, he said. And the chances of a fall also remained equally modest. ICAP head of economics and strategy Michael Thomas said rates will fall a quarter percentage point in the second half of 2006. "We're essentially on hold and if you have to flip a coin then we think it's more likely to go down than up but not for quite some time," Mr Thomas said. By APP