The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has left interest rates on hold as expected, but some economists still believe the central bank could hike later this year to contain inflation. The RBA said it had decided to leave the cash rate target at six per cent. ANZ head of Australian economics Tony Pearson said a move had not been expected after retiring governor Ian Macfarlane's last board meeting on Tuesday, as the economy was still digesting last month's hike. "Next month will be Glenn Stevens' inaugural meeting as governor and things will get more interesting," he said. "Having increased rates in May and August, we expect the RBA will pause again to further assess the impacts on economic activity and inflation." But Mr Pearson said the central bank does not have a lot of time on its side as inflation is tough to contain once it gathers steam. "The risks are now tilted more in the direction of higher inflation rather than lower growth," he said. "With economic growth at around potential and with core inflation having accelerated to the top of the RBA target zone, we believe the RBA will soon need to see signs of a cooling in economic activity and price pressures in order not to lift interest rates again before year end." Mr Pearson expects the cash rates rate could be lifted by another 25 basis points to 6.25 per cent in November. The RBA's comfort band for inflation is two to three per cent. The consumer price index was at four per cent in the year ended June 30. However, Commsec equities economist Martin Arnold does not expect the RBA to lift rates again this year. "We don't expect them to change rates for the rest of 2006 because I think the RBA would want to have a look at the data and see what sort of affect it has on the economy, given that there are very lagged and variable affects from monetary policy decisions," he said. He said the decision was favourable for consumers, who are feeling the impact of the last rate hike in August, which followed an earlier rise in May. "It's a favourable decision for consumers," he said. "I think it's more a question of how the previous rate rise will affect them. "They've been in budget-tightening mode of late in response to the rate rise and that has an impact of increasing living costs. "But we've also seen a recent decrease in fuel prices which would have also helped." But RBC Capital Markets senior economist Su-Lin Ong said the risk is tilted towards a final 25 basis point hike later this year. She said given the high level of capacity utilisation in both goods and labour markets, core inflation is already at the top of the RBA's target range. She also noted that Australian households seem to be rather resilient in the face of higher mortgage rates and petrol prices. "However, we are mindful that monetary policy works witha lag and that global growth momentum is likely to be less buoyant over the next 12 to 18 months," she said. "The RBA is firmly in data-wait-and-watch mode with a clear bias to tighten, should activity and prices continue to surprise on the upside." Citigroup Global Markets senior economist Annette Beacher said the RBA would wait for the release of data showing the impact of the August hike before deciding to raise rates again. "We haven't seen any evidence of the August tightening having an impact to date so that's why expectation for a tightening today were quite low," she said. "We know the Reserve Bank likes to carefully assess each movement first." She said if the RBA lifts rates again it would likely be in November, but it would need more information before making the decision. "If they're going to go, they're going to go in November," she said. "We definitely need to see more information before we're quite convinced of another tightening. "But they're more likely to tighten than ease." The RBA does not release detailed commentary when policy is unchanged, but JP Morgan c
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